Don't Overthink Things

Being in crypto is no different from taking a ride on a roller coaster and volatility is the name of the game. Many see volatility as bad but this is what makes crypto so lucrative as values cannot just continue to rise as this is unsustainable and market crashes will happen. The idea of making quick riches in a short period of time is highly unlikely and being a crypto investor is more like following the process and going with the flow.

Over the past year I have been trying to maintain a $50K-$60K portfolio value
that has not worked out that well and is not from the lack of trying. This morning with the latest dip I am somewhere close to $45K which is not that bad knowing that every altcoin is down.

The thousands of extra coins I have stacked over this time frame you would expect to comfortably achieve a holding value but the reality is you are always chasing your tail and will lose. The accumulation is where the future value will be added so this is a must do exercise as at some point the values will bounce back and this will keep you ahead of the game.

The difference between this cycle and all the other cycles we have seen previously is the emergence of the ETF's which we have no idea what type of impact they will play. One would presume that the ETF's have removed so much liquidity of the exchanges that there will be a scarcity factor fueling demand. On the other hand will institutions sell any of their ETF holdings taking profit as we cannot just presume they are locked away for ever. Again you cannot over think what the market is going to do and one needs to concentrate on what you are doing and that is growing your bags for when the moment finally arrives to sell.

Volatility is what we expect to see and looking back over previous cycles we know these can be harsh dips and will question your sanity of holding, but we must keep on doing what we are doing. Negativity is always around us during these dips and one has to learn to ignore the noise and not get caught up in the emotion. This is more of a game testing your strengths and the weak will always fold.

Looking back in the 2017 cycle we saw many BTC corrections of more than 10% with -34%, -34%, -38%, -40% and -29% yet BTC always bounced back. In 2021 there were loads of corrections with the biggest ones being -31%, -55% and -25%. Since 2023 we have not had huge ones like over 50% but we have had many smaller ones -22%, 22%, 21%, 32% and 29%. Unfortunately the BTC dips directly impact out altcoin portfolio so we are just being following the BTC path.

The timelines are interesting as the end of the year is getting closer and closer each day and for many of us to profit big things need to turn around quickly. This can all happen in the next 2 months so with fingers crossed we shall see an uptick in the markets because this is what has always happened in the past. History never repeats exactly, but does follow a trend so I have no doubt this will play out like all the other cycles we have seen previously. My advice is not to overthink and stick to the basics and wait and see.

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