Crypto Slumps, Cycles and Life Logic

I have often wondered why it is that whenever some really "unfortunate" and unexpected bill comes up — and I feel like I am left with no option but to sell some crypto — it invariably happens when the markets happen to be in one of their worst states in months, if not years.

Being curious, I decided to look backwards and track this particular trend over a number of years — after all, it could merely be my perception, but not reality — and it seems to surprisingly often hold true.

That is to say, often enough that "numbers geeks" would declare it "statistically significant."

It never seems to happen that a $1,200 car repair or a borken water heater suddenly show up when the markets are peaking. It almost invariably happens when the markets are bottoming.

Rather than view this through the lens of perception that I'm being persecuted by the financial gods I decided to apply a little more logic to it.

Whenever we find ourselves in a situation where we're scrabbling around for our "funds of last resort" — even including the loose change between the couch pillows (been there, done that!) — it's almost always because (my) business in the greater world is pretty poor.

After all, I wouldn't be needing to sell crypto if business was going pretty well and the income stream from my businesses were sufficient to cover the unexpected car repair.

The other thing that exert pressure is the fact that most of us have certain expenses that become due at the same time, every year. Here in the US (for example) EVERYBODY files their income tax return on April 15th... and those who owe end up having to liquidate assets/investments from mid-March to mid-April.

So it occurred to me that it is likely that a combination of certain cycles/poor economic conditions and declining crypto markets often walk hand in hand — even though crypto has often been touted as a hedge against economic downturns — and it's not just me, but everybody else as well, who's selling their bit of crypto to fund their personal financial shortfalls and emergencies.

Of course with a lot of people selling crypto so that they can pay for their taxes, car repairs, exploded water heaters and other calamities... that ends up driving the price of crypto down.

At least that's the logic end of the equation.

Which then gets me to think about the cyclical nature of absolutely everything. Things don't usually break and "head South" in a completely random manner, it tends to be somewhat cyclical.

I even talked to a friend of mine who's an auto mechanic and he pointed out that the auto repair business doesn't move in a straight line even though some form of logic would dictate that cars don't break down according to a pattern they break down randomly. But evidently that isn't true.

For example, the auto repair business is actually good shortly after tax day, because of the people who get refunds. Ironically, they often spend more than their refunds, so they (through bad planning) still have to sell assets.

Of course a complete analysis of why this happens would be pretty complex.

I have a substantial tax bill due by October 15th — when you submit your income tax statement if you requested an extension — and I am pretty sure I am not alone.

Historically, crypto markets tend to kind of suck in October. Things that make you go hmmm.

So yeah, I'm powering down (as a back-up option) at the worst possible time... AGAIN.

Such is life...

Thanks for stopping by, and enjoy the rest of your Sunday!

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Created at 2025.09.28 11:08 PST
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