GW12 Premier League Previews and Free Bets with Samba Pools

No more international breaks until March - thank God! The season can finally pick up a bit of sustained momentum without the constant interruption of usually meaningless games of football. Although I did get excited when I saw San Marino take an early lead against Romania - they ultimately lost 7-1...

Last week's Samba Pools were notable for 2 reasons.

Firstly, Blanchy came out on top of the predictions with his 2 entries both getting the bulk of points! Proving once and for all that even a stopped clock tells the right time twice a day.

Secondly, the massive rewards on the post itself mean that the 3 accounts who did take part all won a significant chunk of Hive. It could have been split across more users but hey, no one seems to want free money these days!

Profit and loss table for Hive accounts taking part in Samba Pools. Feel free to join in using the link below.

Rank	Hive Account	Total profit/loss for the season (Hive)
1	@talesfrmthecrypt	22.836
2	@blancy	19.203
3	@tengolotodo	17.945
4	@thoth442	3.018
5	@doombot75	1.609
6	@seki	0.049
7	@amirtheawesome1	-0.320

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On to the matches themselves for week 12...

What remains of November feels like a pivotal spell for Chelsea. They are currently 3rd in the league with no one really talking up their chances of a title given their perceived weaknesses in defence and inconsistent performances.

However, win here and then get a result next weekend against Arsenal and the whole dynamic of their season will change (they've also got a massive CL game against Barcelona midweek too).

Then again the same could be said of Burnley. Having finished October with back to back wins, Scott Parker's side will be desperate to avenge their defeat at West Ham just ahead of the international break which leaves them outside the bottom 3 on goal difference alone. All 3 sides currently below them in the league have made a managerial change and there are signs that for West Ham and Forest at least, those changes are beginning to pay off.

Burnley have generally been a tough side to beat at home with only Liverpool and Arsenal having recorded victories at Turf Moor so far this season.

The games here are hardly thrillers, Burnley themselves have only scored 5 times at home this season while simultaneously keeping a couple of clean sheets. The only match in which both teams have scored at Turf Moor this campaign was the 1-1 draw against Forest. Chelsea for their part have scored in each of their last 10 matches and have the most effective attack away from home this season.

Bournemouth will be pretty glad that the international break came when it did following a real hammering at Villa park where they were distinctively 2nd best. That defeat drops them down to 9th in what is a very congested table but they will be looking at their next 3 matches as an opportunity to get back to winning ways.

As for West Ham, they've won back to back matches for the first time in over a year and they might fancy their chances of continuing their run against 1 of the few Premier League sides that they've maintained a good record against in recent times. The Hammers are unbeaten against the Cherries in any of their last 9 competitive fixtures going all the way back to 2019.

Despite a couple of heavy losses, Bournemouth can point to the fact that they've been very difficult to score against at home this season having conceded just twice in front of their home fans.

West Ham clearly still have a number of issues for Nuno to resolve not least of all the defence. They have conceded in their last 8 matches and so far this season have given up the opening goal in 9 of their 11 games. By contrast Bournemouth have taken the lead in 7 of their Premier League matches this season and have yet to lose when they have (won 5, drawn 2).

Here's a match that's tougher to call. Both sides know that a win could propel them into the Europen qualification spots while a defeat leaves them looking over their shoulders at sides potentially gaining moment behind them.

Neither has shown any sort of consistency yet this season with Brighton in particular yet to mirror a single result week on week despite us being 11 matches into the season.

One thing that is consistent is these 2 sides ability to score in games (both have scored in 9 out of their 11 matches) while simultaneously being unable to keep clean sheets (they've both conceded in 9 out of their 11 games). That makes BTTS in this fixture a pretty decent bet.

Away form has been an issue for the Bees with just a solitary victory against lowly West Ham on their travels this season. By contrast, Brighton are unbeaten at the Amex this season and have never lost a top flight game at home to Brentford.

Any ideas that Sunderland's honeymoon period would come to an abrupt end seem to have been vanquished with the Black Cats unbeaten in their last 4 including taking 4 points from 2 of the 3 teams currently above them in the league.

It's the kind of run of form that Fulham themselves really need to put together with the Cottagers sitting just a point clear of the relegation zone having lost 5 of their last 6 games. Their only win during that period against bottom placed Wolves.

Marco Silva can at least point to the fact that 4 of those 6 matches were away from home where his side has looked poor while their only other home game other than the Wolves victory was against top of the table Arsenal. It is home form, like so many sides down towards the bottom of the league that will define their season.

Other than their opening day draw at Brighton, all Fulham's points this season have come at Craven Cottage where they've looked far more superior in every area of the pitch.

Sunderland's ability to haul themselves back into matches this season has been incredible with their late equaliser against Arsenal the 7th time that they've found themselves behind in a match with 5 of those instances ending in them taking points. Fulham themselves have already coughed up defeat in 2 games that they were ahead this season so the live markets might be worth watching on this one.

2 sides whose supporters will probably be asking Santa for a time machine this Christmas so that they can go back 12 months when they were both flying in the league.

Forest have at least begun to turn things around with 4 crucial points from 2 home games under Sean Dyche. Away at the league champions would usually be one to write off but they might fancy their chances of taking something from a Liverpool side who have picked up fewer points in their last 6 league games than Forest!

Remember Forest did win here last season when their defensive solidity was at it's strongest but they've conceded in their last 19 Premier League matches suggesting that a repeat of the 1-0 on that day is pretty unlikely. They've also only scored twice on their travels so far this season which all points towards a difficult afternoon.

As for Liverpool, are they out of the title race already. 8 points is hardly a massive deficit with so long to go in the season but the fact that they've already lost 5 matches this season doesn't suggest that they are about to go on the kind of run that could put pressure on those above them.

They are the only side in the top 4 divisions of English football not to have drawn a match so far this season so a result either way looks a pretty decent bet in this one.

Another season, another managerial change. How long can a football club be run as poorly at Wolves and survive in the Premier League? I think that we're going to find the answer to that question in the coming months.

Rob Edwards has a massive job on his hands to turn things around at the club he used to play for. You don't have to go into finite detail to work out Wolves problems. They've scored the fewest goals this season, they've conceded the most and they therefore have just 2 points.

But for a run of form during the Spring after having changed manager again, Wolves would almost certainly have been in a relegation battle last season as well so it feels like they are once again rolling the dice with the hope that a shake up in the dugout can deliver them their first league win in 16 attempts.

Palace will be semi-disappointed not to have turned 5 of their draws so far this season into wins. They continue to create sufficient chances to win games while having the 3rd best defensive record in the league.

In recent history, this is a match that Palace have dominated with 7 wins in the last 9 Premier League meetings. More recently still, it's a game that has seen goals with 19 of them in the last 4 league encounters with both sides scoring in each fixture during that period.

Its just not quite happening for Newcastle this season but you can bet that they'll be up for the battle when they face Man City at home on Saturday evening. All 3 of the Magpies victories this season in the league have come at home but they have lost to other title contenders Liverpool and Arsenal here already this season.

In fact, their record at home against City is generally pretty poor with just 1 league victory against them at St James Park in the last 20 years! What's more, you have to go all the way back to 2006 for the last time Newcastle managed a clean sheet against City whose side on that day included the likes of Joey Barton and Paul Dickov. I think they might have a bit more quality these days!

For City, this will be another test of their title credentials. While they've moved up to 2nd, that's been largely based on a run of home games with 4 of their last 6 being played at the Ethiad which were all comfortable wins. Away from home they continue to look less sure of themselves, collecting 1.4 points per game versus the 2.5 they are achieving at home.

They do continue to be the league's top scorers and 6 of their wins this season have been by a margin of 2 or more goals, although again, only 1 of those victories came away from home versus Wolves on the opening day with City having scored just 3 times in the 4 away games they've played since then.

After a difficult start to the season, Villa are starting to find their groove and were very impressive in dismantling Bournemouth prior to the international break. Their form over the last 8 matches would place them 3rd in the league, behind only the current top 2 sides.

For their part, Leeds were not so great, suffering a 3-1 defeat at fellow relegation candidates Forest and leaving their fan base fretting for a fortnight over whether they'll be able to secure their Premier League status come the end of the season.

As we've noted on many occassions, home form will be what saves Leeds. They've lost just once at Elland Road on their return to the top flight, scored in all but 1 of those games and kept clean sheets in 2. When you look at their next 3 games (City, Chelsea and Liverpool) then the onus on them to take something from this match is even greater!

As with a couple of teams who are currently doing well in the league, Villa's run of form has been benefitted by a home bias in their fixtures (4 games at Villa Park out of the last 6). Away from home they've scored just 3 times this season with none of those goals coming from within the penalty area.

The big match of the weekend sees Thomas Frank take charge of his first North London derby.

Both these teams gave up winning positions late on in their last matches and so will be keen to avoid similar mistakes in what will be a fiery and passionate encounter.

Spurs of course have looked much more comfortable playing away from home this season with 4 wins and a draw on their travels while Arsenal have only been denied victory at home this season by a resolute Man City.

You have to go all the way back to 2010 for the last time Spurs won a league match at the Emirates although they have engineered 5 draws in the period since.

One thing you do generally get in this game is goals. Both sides have scored in the last 7 league matches played at the Emirates although Arsenal have conceded just once at home this season to Erling Haaland. Do Spurs have a player who can be as clinical as the City striker?

The final game of the week sees United entertain Everton.

A victory for United could move them into the Champions League positions while a win for Everton would put them level with United. While it's not 'early in the season' the congested nature of the table still means that a couple of good/bad results can really change the mood at pretty much every Premier League club as we come into a busy time of the footballing calendar.

The Red Devils have been scoring plenty of goals this season with 2 or more in each of their last 5 games. That potency in attack has also ensured victory in their last 4 Premier League matches at Old Trafford.

At the same time, they've kept just 1 clean sheet so far this season which of course means they are likely to need to score at least twice in this match if they want to make it 5 home wins a row.

No doubt Everton will come with the intention to frustrate United and look to knick something on the break. Outside of the 3-2 win at Wolves, their only victory away from home this season, they've recorded just a shade over 3 xG in the other 4 games suggesting that their issues at home, where they miss a lot of chances, aren't the same problem when they travel where they aren't creating much full stop.