No Happy Ending for Ukraine

Ukraine failed to break free from the war of attrition with Russia, as its blitzkrieg counteroffensive attempt, utilizing maneuver warfare, failed to extend beyond the initial grey zone. Over a span of three and a half months of intense battles, Ukraine suffered significant losses in NATO equipment and foreign-trained forces.

Russia holds the title of the third world's largest energy producer, the leading food exporter, and boasts the largest territory with substantial mining and industrial capacity. Its army is well-equipped with modern weaponry, and their ammunition stockpiles show no signs of depletion. The Russian population perceives this war as an existential threat from the collective West, motivating them to pursue victory with great determination.

Ukraine finds itself ill-suited for a war of attrition, facing a substantial disadvantage in various metrics, including its overall population, which has dwindled by half due to heavy emigration, much of it into Russia. Western arms shipments have dwindled to a trickle, while political support for the war in Western countries is rapidly waning.

There is no optimistic outlook for Ukraine's future as long as the West persists in pushing for Ukraine's NATO membership at a later date—an unacceptable scenario for Russia. This creates a powerful incentive for Russia to reduce Ukraine to a dysfunctional state, rendering it unable to revive its economy or military capabilities to challenge Russia, even in the distant future.