The end game in Ukraine

John Mearsheimer predicted the war, now he predicts how it will end (skip the 6 min intro):

Current Status:

• • The war is an attrition war, meant to exhaust the enemy.

  • Winning depends on resolve, population, and artillery.

  • Russia's population advantage is around 5:1 due to Ukrainian refugees.

  • Artillery balance heavily favors Russia, possibly up to 10:1.

  • Casualty Exchange Ratio is around 2:1 in Russia's favor.

  • Ukraine is struggling with troop numbers, Russia has not fully mobilized.

    **Future Predictions**

    :

• • Russia aims to annex 4 more oblasts, including Odessa and Kharkiv.

  • The goal is to incorporate ethnic Russians and weaken Ukraine.

  • Russia has no interest in conquering western Ukraine.

  • Peace is unlikely due to disagreements on territory, neutrality, and deep-seated hatred.

  • NATO expansion has led to the current crisis, with more potential problems ahead.

  • F16s won't change the outcome due to time to train pilots, Russian air defense, and the risk of escalation.

  • If Russians were losing, nuclear use may be considered, but currently this risk is low as Russia is leading.